Previous papers
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Western strategy in the Ukraine war is wobbling on several points
Portfolio 07 déc, 2022
Two things are clear from the contradictory statements of Western politicians - some of them rejecting even the idea of negotiation, whereas others discretely considering the ins and outs of a future settlement. First, the limits and risks of the strategy pursued so far have now become evident. This does not mean that Moscow is in a better position, but we are obviously more interested in the economy, security and unity of the NATO-EU side. And the situation is anything but bright. Secondly, the fact that so far there has been no meaningful move towards a diplomatic solution is due to the fact that the search for a peaceful way out is a politically hazardous endeavor. It could both shatter the Western unity that has been masterfully maintained up to now and put into question the mainstream narrative on the war.
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Keeping a cool head in a hot war
Portfolio 11 mars, 2022
War is raging in Europe: in Ukraine under Russian attack, women and children are fleeing, ordinary citizens are taking up arms, and historic buildings find themselves in ruins. But as always, war is a transitional state between two phases dominated by diplomacy. On the one hand, it derives from the obvious failure of the previous negotiations, and on the other, it aims to broker, on the basis of new positions, a new power equilibrium as opposed to the earlier situation. Therefore the West, including Europe, needs first and foremost to keep a cool head. The reactive steps taken in the midst of overheated emotions can only be adequately gauged according to whether the conflict is being limited or intensified by them and whether they will lead to a post-war security situation that is advantageous or detrimental to us.
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Discussing the EU's common future is fascinating but vain
Portfolio 30 mai, 2021
The recently launched one-year-long collective brainstorming on the future of the Union is an attractive idea indeed. By seeking input directly from the citizens, it is planned to serve as the basis for reforming the EU – and who knows: maybe even have another go at the treaty itself. However, this sympathetic scenario needs nuancing from the outset. First of all, the conclusions are already in the bag. Secondly, on fundamental political issues, the EU will remain just as incapable after. Thirdly, posing the question of the European Union’s common future is a mistake by itself. If they insist on the 27-member format, Europe will have no future whatsoever. It will write itself out of History, and its fate will be decided by outside powers.
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Germany’s Transatlantic Ambiguities
Foreign Policy Research Institute 05 mars, 2021
Hopes for a spectacular relaunch of the European Union’s Franco-German “motor” after Brexit have thus far failed to materialize. Quite the contrary, now that Paris and Berlin find themselves without the British “third wheel,” almost every issue seems to trigger a bilateral squabble. Whether it is armaments cooperation, energy supply from Moscow, or policy towards Turkey, Franco-German disagreements keep rising to the surface. One of these has drawn much attention recently since it relates to the very nature of Europe and its links to the United States: the question of whether or how Europe (by which they usually mean the European Union) should pursue more strategic autonomy. Although the term has come to be associated with current French President Emmanuel Macron, the concept goes back almost 60 years to the first President of the Fifth Republic, General Charles de Gaulle.
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Who "needs NATO" more? France or... the United States?
Pour un ordre international différent. Une grande ambition pour la France et l'Europe (dir. Cercle de Réflexion Interarmées) 01 févr, 2021
Customary of smashing statements that might not necessarily be supported by the facts, President Donald Trump placed two at once at the Alliance summit in December 2019, during a press conference: “Nobody needs NATO more than France (...) frankly, the one that benefits the least is the United States.” Two utter nonsense that deserve to be looked at more closely.
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Discussion on transatlantic relations
Hungarian Europe Society 03 déc, 2020
Webinar, in English, on transatlantic relations. Debate moderated by István Hegedűs, with Charles A. Kupchan, Thibault Muzergues and Veronica Anghel. The video is available at this link.
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Transatlantic Relations: The Biden Opportunity and Its Limits
Hungarian Europe Society 15 nov, 2020
(...) All the positive change in tone on the U.S. side does not necessarily mean easier negotiations or any benefits for Europe in the long run. Paradoxically enough, the more jovial the atmosphere, the more some European governments will be tempted to make concessions, abandon common EU positions and drop even the idea of self-assertion vis-a-vis the U.S. That would only add to the relationship’s asymmetry. The challenge, for Europeans, is to strike the right balance: seize the opportunity of a less confrontational American stance, without reverting back to old reflexes of excessive deference.
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Conference on Liberal Answers to Anti-Liberal Challenges
Hungarian Europe Society 06 nov, 2020
There is no doubt about Western liberalism undergoing a two-front attack: challenged from the outside, through the rise of authoritarian regimes, as well as from the inside due to the spread of so-called populism. It would certainly be comfortable to think of these as objective developments, mostly out of our control – evil forces at play. In reality, no adequate response is possible, or even imaginable, without first acknowledging our own responsibility in the current state of affairs. Especially in Europe, where we consistently have made ourselves weak and thereby put our Union, our countries and our citizens at the mercy of these “evil forces”.
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The Risks of Europelessness (liberalism-illiberalism)
Hungarian Europe Society 06 nov, 2020
It is a truism to say that the Western-type liberal order is not in a particularly great shape today, some (defenders and opponents alike) would even go as far as to refer to as being “in decay”. There is no doubt about Western liberalism as we know it undergoing a two-front attack: challenged from the outside, through the rise of authoritarian regimes, as well as from the inside due to the spread of so-called populism. It would certainly be comfortable to think of these as objective developments, mostly out of our control – evil forces at play. The only thing we can and need to do, in this vision, is to come together, join our forces and reassert our values, as a response. Nothing could be farther from the true. No adequate response is possible, or even imaginable, without first acknowledging our own responsibility in the current state of affairs. Especially in Europe, where we consistently have made ourselves weak and thereby put our Union, our countries and our citizens at the mercy of these “evil forces”.
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Conscious Uncoupling? American Troop Withdrawals and the Future of the West
FPRI conversations 06 aout, 2020
President Trump's recent announcemet that nearly 12, 000 U.S. Troops will be redeployed was both an expected and surprising product of a mixture of leadership personalities, electoral politics and strategic calculations. What does it all mean for American and European security? A trio of FPRI scholars - Ronald Granieri, David S. Maxwell and Hajnalka Vincze - discuss the President's decision, as we consider its probable causes and possible long-term effects on American-German relations, NATO, and broader U.S. strategy.
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Who
IVERIS 12 déc, 2019
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Beyond Macron's Subversive NATO Comments: France's Growing Unease with the Alliance
Foreign Policy Research Institute 26 nov, 2019
In deciding to give an interview to The Economist where he declared NATO “brain dead,” President Emmanuel Macron certainly knew he would spark indignation among his fellow European leaders. He chose to do it nevertheless, not out of proverbial French arrogance, but because he deems it both necessary and urgent. A year away from the next U.S. elections (and with Brexit forever dragging on), an unprecedented window of opportunity is about to slam shut for France.
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An increasinly all-encompassing NATO
IVERIS 18 oct, 2019
For the past twenty years, the United States has been pushing the Alliance to become “global”, on the grounds that it must adapt to new risks and threats if it wants “to stay relevant” (meaning: to be useful for American interests and to ensure, in exchange, that the USA stays engaged on the old continent). After all, it is only fair. Except that for the European allies this would mechanically lead to giving up their own policies. The challenge for them would therefore be to prevent, as much as possible, the expansion of NATO’s competencies to other (non-military) domains and to other (non-euro-Atlantic) geographical areas. For one of the main rationales behind NATO “going global” is to make sure that Europeans – who, in NATO, find themselves in a subordinate position vis-à-vis the USA – formulate their various policies no longer on their own, but within the U.S.-led Atlantic Alliance.
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Indecent Proposal? What Trump’s Greenland offer tells us about… NATO
IVERIS 22 sept, 2019
By setting his sights on the island of Greenland, President Trump has provoked, as usual, a mixture of consternation, opprobrium and widespread hilarity on the international stage. Most of the comments limited themselves to criticizing his style and his moodiness: he spoke of a “large real estate deal” and, in the face of a refusal to sell, he canceled his planned visit and described the Danish Prime Minister’s reaction as “nasty”. More astute observers have pointed out that Trump's initiative is less whimsical than it might seem at first glance – it is part of a regional policy America has been pursuing for a while. In any case, for Europeans it is not what really matters. What is essential, to them, is rather the exposure, in broad daylight, of an American reasoning that is as compelling as it is uncomfortable.
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Iran, the EU, and the USA: The European Search for (Some Degree of) Autonomy
Foreign Policy Research Institute 28 mars, 2019
The recent effort by France, the United Kingdom, and Germany to create a financial mechanism designed to bypass U.S. extraterritorial sanctions on Iran reveals an increasing need for self-assertion vis-à-vis the United States. For months, Europeans have been seeking ways to preserve the nuclear deal despite President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from it. Their efforts have less to do with policy towards Tehran than with positioning the European Union in relation to the U.S., and with visions of Europe itself as an international player.
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One Voice, But Whose Voice? Should France Cede Its UN Security Council Seat to the EU?
Foreign Policy Research Institute 20 mars, 2019
France and Germany recently decided to share the presidency of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), and jointly do the agenda-setting and public communication tasks it involves, over the next two months. What could be an important symbol appears, however, more like a smokescreen to conceal the two partners’ skirmishes over their respective UN seats. The Germans wish to see France’s permanent member status Europeanized—in other words, transferred to the European Union as a whole. Paris continues to respond to such suggestions with a resounding non. At first glance, this disagreement might look like French national “egoism” standing in the way of Germany’s splendid ambitions for Europe. On closer inspection, however, it is rather the other way around.
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President Macron’s “minor mishaps”: towards a downfall or a rebound?
Foreign Policy Research Institute 27 nov, 2018
After a virtually faultless first year in office, French President Emmanuel Macron has faced more difficult times in recent months. Admittedly, his speeches are as eloquent as ever—about the international order, about France, and about Europe—and he is still much appreciated worldwide as the defender of multilateralism (at the United Nations), of the environment (recently awarded “champion of the Earth”), and of economic righteousness (the International Monetary Fund and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development welcome his market-liberal proposed reforms). Nevertheless, “his people,” as he likes to refer to his fellow citizens in the foreign media, seem today distinctly lacking enthusiasm.
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Macron-Trump squabble over a "European army"
Articles, 22 nov, 2018
The quarrel of a bluffer and a buffoon over a nonsensical idea. One could caricature in these terms the controversy that took place, by means of interviews and tweets, between the French and American presidents after the former floated the murky concept of a so-called European army. It is hard to say exactly what motivated the French president at that moment, knowing that if there is a country for which the pooling of European forces would mean a net loss, not to say a fatal disaster, it is France. No doubt Emmanuel Macron is fully aware of this, in which case he must have found that the greatest merit of the concept is that it has no chance to become a reality. It also had all the potential to irritate President Trump, incidentally.
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“Populist” Government in Italy: Catastrophe or Useful Catalyst?
Foreign Policy Research Institute 21 juin, 2018
The recent entry into office of the new Italian government was received, in media and financial circles, as well as by most European leaders, with a mixture of indignation and concern. How could Italy—one of the founding members of the Union and its birthplace due to the Treaty of Rome—bring to power Eurosceptic, anti-establishment forces likely to jeopardize the stability of the euro and to create unprecedented tensions within the EU? The alliance between the far-right League and the Five Star Movement (M5S) stemming from a leftist, anti-globalization ideology, is regarded by many as the unfortunate confirmation of the rise of all kinds of “populisms” and therefore as a reversal of the virtuous pro-European momentum generated by last year’s election of French President Emmanuel Macron.
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Jerusalem: President Trump Challenges Europe’s “Pavlovian” Reflexes
Foreign Policy Research Institute 18 mai, 2018
With the recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and the decision to transfer the U.S. embassy there, U.S. President Donald Trump has made a first step to break one of Europe’s most deeply anchored reflexes. As former European Commissioner Chris Patten noted, “The main determinant Europe’s political behavior” is, on the Israel-Palestine issue in particular, “the Pavlovian rejection of any course of action that might distance Europe from the Americans.”
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European defense: the new CSDP-NATO conundrum
Défense & Stratégie, Automne 2017, n°42, pp. 5-29 05 déc, 2017
The turbulences in the European and transatlantic skies over the course of the past year obviously have not been without impact on the coexistence between the Atlantic Alliance and the European Union's (EU) Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP). Long-time taboos have been lifted, initiatives are multiplying, new perspectives seem to open up, and immediately generate powerful backlashes. The outcome will depend largely, once again, on the choices made, and determination displayed, by France.
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European flag: symbol of a link or of an allegiance?
Articles, 30 nov, 2017
At the mid-October EU summit, President Macron joined the so-called Declaration No. 52, ten years after the Lisbon Treaty was adopted and France decided not to sign the annexed Declaration on EU symbols.[1] If the new French president chose to reverse policy at this particular moment, it is primarily as a response to far-left leader Mélenchon’s recent call to ban the European flag from the Assemblée nationale (the Lower House of the Parliament). Whereas the Declaration is legally non-binding, the move is intended, in Emmanuel Macron’s words, to “assert the attachment” of France to the symbols of Europe. One point that seems to have been largely overlooked, is that the meaning of those symbols can be very different, depending on whether one refers to the French or English version of the text.
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President Macron’s Balancing Act
Lecture at the Princeton Committee of FPRI 26 oct, 2017
"For the next five years, on the domestic front, the main challenge will be the feeling of alienation of a large majority of the French population. This comes both from the divide between globalization’s winners and losers, and from what is widely perceived as an increasingly assertive presence of Islam. On the European front, there is an unprecedented window of opportunity for the protective, strategic, autonomous EU project France has always advocated, but the key to achieve this still resides in the implementation of the multispeed model."
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NATO: Assessing the Alliance’s Counter-Terrorism Efforts
The Jamestown Foundation Terrorism Monitor, Vol.15 Issue 8 21 avril, 2017
NATO’s counter-terrorism efforts have been the focus of much attention in recent months. Faced with a U.S. ultimatum that Washington might “moderate its commitment” to the Alliance, member states have sought ways to demonstrate that the organization plays a significant part in global counter-terrorism efforts and that it could do even more.
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The United Kingdom and the paradigm shift in transatlantic security
Written Evidence UK Parliament Defence Committee 14 mars, 2017
The concurrence between Brexit (expected to revitalize a European defence on which London has always imposed strict limits) and the election of D. Trump in the United States (shedding light on the risks and uncertainties stemming from a situation of dependency) seems to have an almost seismic effect on the architecture of European and transatlantic security.
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After Warsaw: NATO at the summit of (its own) contradictions
Défense & Stratégie n°40, automne 2016 19 déc, 2016
At the last NATO summit in Warsaw, the top priority was to demonstrate, as the last paragraph of the final communiqué declares, "our unity, our solidarity and our strength". But on each of the three points, serious doubts remain. Whether it is unity (common front against commonly perceived threats), solidarity (an attack against one of the members considered an attack against all) or force (in the area of intelligence, decision-making , deployment of troops), the allies' attitude reveals deeply set tensions.
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Blog, 03 nov, 2016
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Brexit: a stab in the back for the US
Note IVERIS 02 juil, 2016
In the wake of the British referendum, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden noted, "We would have preferred a different outcome."[1] A few days later, Secretary of State Kerry said that it was still possible to "walk back" on Brexit.[2] Neither the disappointment nor the hope that the situation could still be reversed came as a surprise from the American side. Indeed, over the last six decades, Washington spared no effort to put, then keep, in the EU their favorite ally. The reason is simple. As explained by the U.S. Embassy in London, the European Union is "the world’s most important organization to which the United States does not belong". In order to make its voice heard, the U.S. needs their "man inside" or, in diplomatic terms, "the expression within the EU of common U.S.-UK attitudes through UK membership".[3] Except that British voters opted for the exit...
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Beyond the Brexit issue
Note IVERIS 18 févr, 2016
In 1975, at the time of the first British referendum on whether the United Kingdom should leave or remain in what was then the European Communities, a caricature of the Canard enchaîné depicted Prime Minister Harold Wilson in bed on a voluptuous, but visibly bored Europa who pleads: “In or out, my dear Wilson, but stop this ridiculous back and forth.”[1] It was more than forty years ago ... Four decades during which the UK has carefully kept their notoriously “semi-detached position” vis-a-vis Europe.
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A glimpse into the counter-terrorism vs human rights conundrum
International conference on human rights and counter-terrorism, Geneva 16 févr, 2015
In the light of recent terrorist attacks in Europe, the controversy about how to strike the appropriate balance between “the fight against terrorism” and the upholding of human rights, might well return to the forefront of attention. The European Union and its Member States are the United States’ closest allies, and the cooperation extends well beyond the traditional NATO framework, deep into counter-terrorism, both on a bilateral and multilateral basis. At the same time, Europe has been resolutely and consistently skeptical as to the course of action taken by the USA in the aftermath of 9/11.
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A non-nuclear independent Scotland in NATO? (BBC Radio interview)
Entretien à BBC Radio l’émission 5 Live Drive 20 nov, 2013
Should the SNP’s (Scottish National Party) anti-nuclear stance be a problem for an independent Scotland eager to keep its membership card in NATO ?* In short, not really. Calling for the removal of UK nuclear weapons from its territory and becoming a non-nuclear state is not a priori inconsistent with membership in NATO. Reminder: 20 member countries out of the current 28 do not possess and/or host any nuclear weapons on their soil.
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On the transatlantic dimension of British Euroskepticism
Séminaire international à l'université de Toulon 09 avril, 2013
The dynamic of relations between the United Kingdom and the European Union cannot be understood in its totality and in its specificity without taking into account the role played by the United States, particularly through the relationship that London would like to believe "special." Be it directly, indirectly, or even sometimes paradoxically, the American/Atlanticist tropism of the British political and media establishment is at the root of many of their positions considered as skeptical or downright hostile vis-à-vis the European integration.
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Scottish Independence and the Question of Transatlantic and European Security
University of Glasgow International Lecture Series 21 mars, 2013
The special position of the UK in the European and transatlantic security field will be one of the key defining elements both for the attitude of other States vis-a-vis a possible Scottish independence (would or would not they prefer to see London weakened even if just temporarily), and for their appreciation of the policies pursued by an independent Scotland (would they be in line with, or different from, those of Whitehall). Looking at the possibility of Scottish independence from a transatlantic-European security perspective implies examining three different albeit closely related subjects:
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Europe after (the U.S.) elections
Theatrum Belli 10 nov, 2012
What does the reelection of Barack Obama mean for Europe? Besides continuity, will there be more intransigence on certain issues or, on the contrary, will there be a bit more attention to the sensibilities of his allies? These are the kinds of questions with which European leaders continue to harass both their advisers and all those who agree to be invited by them in Washington DC.
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Wikileaks - through transatlantic PRISM
Articles, 16 déc, 2010
This (and similar) kind of information could only become “explosive” if, thanks to the Wikileaks “scoop” for instance, the general public began to ask serious questions. And not about America – but about their own leaders' behaviour.
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Umbrella or hara-kiri ? – US nuclear presence in Europe
Contradictions n°128 (Paix et désarmement) 09 oct, 2009
All too often, it is tempting to equate American nuclear presence in Europe to its sole tangible dimension. Namely the stationing of hundreds of U.S. bombs in five countries of the European continent, as part of NATO and of its so-called "nuclear sharing". And it is a mistake to do so.
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France s “return” to NATO: false reasons and true consequences
La Lettre Sentinel n°51, avril 2009 08 avril, 2009
Hailed (or intensely disparaged, it depends) as a "return to the fold", would the reintegration by France of the integrated military structures end up exploding the Alliance? The question is paradoxical only in appearance.
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Europe vis-a-vis an unbalanced multipolar world
The Federalist Year LI, 2009 07 mars, 2009
That which, following the disappearance of the Soviet Union, was described as “the unipolar period” is now moving inexorably towards its end, to the dismay of those who pinned, and those who would still like to pin, all their hopes on it. The USA, concerned as ever with holding onto its leadership in global affairs, has for some time shown irritation at talk of a “multipolar world,” interpreting the expression as a sign of some kind of anti-American plot. In response to this, European leaders, French ones in particular, have repeatedly pointed out that the multipolar world, far from a design, is merely an observation.
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Assessment 2008 of the European Union’s security and defence policy
Défense & Stratégie n°25, hiver 2008 31 déc, 2008
The year 2008 was that of a triple anniversary and of a double illusion with regard to European defence. Fifteen years ago, the entry into force of the Maastricht Treaty marks the official launch of the CFSP (Common Foreign and Security Policy), with the prospect of a possible future defence component.
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Assessment 2007 of the European Union’s security and defence policy
Défense & Stratégie n°22, janvier 2008 20 févr, 2008
The following brief overview proposes to summarize the principal developments of the year 2007 in the field of European defence. In this regard, two preliminary remarks are of order. The first one is terminological; it relates to the denomination ESDP (European security and defence policy) used up to now, present paper included. It is bound to become, once the new treaty ratified, CSDP (Common security and defence policy). The second remark consists in stressing that the developments and the debates in 2007 continue to revolve around the most controversial concept in European defence, namely the term of ‘autonomy’.
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European Europe or Atlantic Europe: a question of “preference”...
La Lettre Sentinel n°47, octobre 2007 31 oct, 2007
These last months saw the forceful return of the good old debate on “protectionism” versus liberalism. In other words, on the respective roles of the politics and the economic, or face to face between the logic of power and the logic of the market. With the implicit question about the need for a “European preference”, and the immediate spotlight this directs on the inherent contradictions of the liberal-Atlantic credo.
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The armaments sector in front of the great challenges of European integration
Colloque syndical européen de la FNTE CGT 29 sept, 2007
How can we reconcile two fundamentally different logics: that of the armaments sector with all the strategic imperatives linked to it, and that of the European construction which oscillates between a quasi-political entity and a mere large market? Intervention at the European Trade Union Symposium of the FNTE (National Federation of the Workers of the State) of the CGT.
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The EU-NATO syndrome: spotlight on transatlantic realities
Journal of Contemporary European Research Vol3 I2 21 sept, 2007
Contrary to the two dominant, albeit diametrically opposed, types of forecasts that were both highly fashionable a few years ago, it appears more and more clearly that the headaches related to the EU-NATO conundrum are here to stay. Those who, in view of the initial difficulties of establishing mutually acceptable relations between the two organizations, were talking about teething problems likely to be replaced, in due course, by a harmonious insertion of the new-born European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) into the Atlantic system, were just as wrong as those who saw in it yet another occasion to toll the death knell of the North Atlantic Alliance. As it is, neither of the two scenarios seems close to becoming a reality any time soon.
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An avant-garde to preserve and enhance European sovereignty
Pour une Europe européenne (ed. H. de Grossouvre) 14 sept, 2007
The European avant-garde has a sense and a legitimacy only if it is inspired by a strategic vision, aiming to the reinforcement of all the aspects of European sovereignty. Only such a project will be able to contribute to the safeguarding of a "certain idea of Europe": that of a fully-fledged geopolitical actor able to guarantee our security, to promote our values and our interests and to defend our economic, social, environmental and cultural model.
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Armaments issues in a transatlantic light
Présentation à l’Université d’été du CIFE-IEHEI 04 sept, 2007
After listing some of the major stakes related to the armament sector, a brief historical reminder is devoted to clarifying the context of the current debates. Then certain general characteristics of the American and European defence industries are going to be examined. Finally, misleading myths are to be deciphered, in particular the imposture of the technological “gap”, the holy horror inspired by the concept of “fortress Europe” and the tendentious praise of “complementarity”.
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EU accession and the foreign policy dimension
University of Glasgow CRCEES Research Forum 11 mai, 2007
First Annual CRCEES (Centre for Russian, Central and East European Studies) Research Forum. CRCEES is an inter-university Centre of Excellence. Presentation on the foreign policy dimension of EU accession.
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Lifting the shield(s): interrogations around the US missile defense project
La Lettre Sentinel n°45, mars-avril 2007 06 avril, 2007
During the last year of the Clinton administration and the first nine months of the Bush team in power, a broad consensus had taken shape in the expert conferences and semi-official meetings on the two sides of the Atlantic: everyone agreed that the NMD (National Missile Defense) was going to become "the" great topic of controversy of the following months and years.
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NATO battlefields after the Riga summit
La Lettre Sentinel n°43-44, janvier-février 2007 09 févr, 2007
NATO’s Riga summit, held at the end of last November, was the typical example of a spectacular non-event. Striking especially by the contrast between the publicity made for the gathering of 26 Heads of State and government on the one hand, and the piteous outcome of the meeting on the other. The marketing-type announcements planned for the occasion had gradually left the place to the invading reality represented by the deplorable performance of the allies in Afghanistan. This latter being, in addition, only one of the (far too) many symptoms of the growing malaise within Alliance.
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Article 296: Friend or Foe?
EuroFuture Magazine, Winter 2006 01 janv, 2007
The armaments sector is the par excellence strategic field, be it in geopolitical, economic or technological terms. Due to the coincidence between the most abstract questions related to sovereignty and the most tangible nature of the products (origin, composition, design), the policies pursued in this area are particularly revealing of, and determining for, the direction Europe is about to take.
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Article 296 of the TEC: obstacle or safety barrier?
Défense & Stratégie n°18, octobre 2006 31 oct, 2006
In the public relations offensive carried out from Brussels - with the explicit or implicit support of a large part of the private industrial sector - article 296 is presented as being at the origin of the European fragmentation in the armament field. The only error of this otherwise attractive reasoning is that it confuses cause and consequence. Because far from being the source, article 296 is rather the reflection of our divisions. In particular that of the divergences, not to say differences, of intra-European viewpoints on the very idea we have on Europe’s future: power or not, European or not.
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Becoming flexible to keep it together: the logic and the pitfalls behind the concept of differentiated integration
The Federalist, XLVIII, 2006, N° 1 28 oct, 2006
The present paper offers a brief overview of the terminological-historical, theoretical and political aspects of “differentiated integration” scenarios. It argues that although “flexibility” is the only way to consolidate the acquis and pursue the integration project, differentiation does not automatically lead to a more ambitious, more powerful and more European Europe. In order to ensure this outcome, the flexibility pioneers must pay particular attention to two paramount criteria.
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Towards which kind of of
Biztonságpolitikai és Honvédelmi Kutatások Központ 06 oct, 2006
The so-called code of conduct, which came into effect on July 1, 2006 with the participation of 22 Member States of the Union and is supposed to encourage the “Europeanization” of defence procurement, is only the beginning. It marks the entry in scene, in implacably concrete terms, of the fundamental political questions (differed since more than a half-century) of the European construction. As a beginning, it is by nature imperfect and ambiguous. But at the same time, it reflects perfectly the possibilities and the limits of the political will that is at its origin.
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The instruments of Europe's independence
Colloque à Strasbourg, au Conseil de l'Europe 05 oct, 2006
As for the systematically hidden choice between European dependence or independence, in the texts, everything seems crystal clear. When the ESDP (European Security and Defense Policy) was launched in June 1999 in Cologne, the Declaration of the Fifteen immediately stipulated the need for autonomy and credibility of the Union's means and assets. This is in line with the objectives set out in Article 11 of the Treaty on European Union, in particular the "safeguarding of the common values, fundamental interests, independence and integrity" of the EU. However, not only are we still waiting to see when these beautiful words will be translated into deeds, but the very question of whether they should be one day remains an object of debate.
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European defence policy forecast
Biztonságpolitikai és Honvédelmi Kutatások Központ 06 aout, 2006
First of all, it is worth underlining that neither the French elections of 2007, nor those in the United States in 2008 are bound to alter in a notable way - i.e. in addition to the gestures and effect-based announcements scheduled for these occasions - the traditional orientations of the two countries’ foreign and security policies. Likewise, the calvaries of the new European treaty, the actual rhythm of the EU’s blind rush to enlargement, and the endless transatlantic initiatives based on stylistic changes in Washington are equally secondary from the point of view of the real evolutions in European integration and in our relationship with the United States.
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The EU today: diagnostic and scenarios
Európai Unióról és oktatásáról (ed. O. Szabolcs) 13 mai, 2006
The process of European integration is, without any doubt, the most significant political innovation of the last half-century. Born out of the feeling of necessity, it has been guided by the hope that the construction of a community between European countries may eventually pave the way for the organization of tomorrow’s world. However, our subject here is not to dwell on how brilliant, necessary and promising the project is. In fact, the credibility and legitimacy of the European process today are weakened both inside and outside, in particular by the gulf between rhetoric and reality.
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Towards the demystification of the transatlantic relationship
A transzatlanti vita (ed. H. Vincze) 04 mai, 2006
Euro-American relations are periodically tarnished by so-called "misunderstandings", verbal skirmishes, diplomatic incidents and other manifestations of mutual distrust that seem to rise out of nowhere, literally from one day to the next. Their perception is actually dramatized by the fact that they emerge from under the cover of what is presented as an impeccable relationship, based on a much-touted community of values and interests. This contradiction increases the risk of visceral reactions on both sides of the Atlantic: anti-Americanism in Europe and Europe-bashing in the United States.
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Relations between the Islam and the West – „Two Worlds?”
Globális biztonsági kihívások (ed. Tarrósy I.-Glied V.) 25 avril, 2006
When we examine the relationship between civilizations, one should first of all make a clear distinction between State actors, which do have the right and the capacity for political action, and cultural spheres of variable scale and cohesion, which do not. As the excellent American analyst, William Pfaff observed: "None of these civilizations, rather arbitrarily defined, is or ever was, as such, a political actor or a political entity. Nations act. Governments wage wars. But civilizations are not political units and there is no hint that they will ever become one". This does not mean, far from it, as one will see it hereafter, an underestimation of cultural and identity-related factors.
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The European Union’s foreign, security and defence policy – in a nutshell
Analyses and essays, 08 avril, 2006
According to a widely known phrase pronounced by then Luxemburg Foreign Minister Jacques Poos at the beginning of the 1990’s, the EU is “an economic giant, a political dwarf and a military worm”. Whereas far from being incorrect, this definition needs some updating and, most of all, serious clarification.
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Transatlantic relations in the light of the defence industries
Lecture at Jozsef Antall Foundation, Corvinus University 05 avril, 2006
The present framework only allows an inevitably approximate overall outline of the political processes and strategic stakes behind the armament issues. The conducting line is simple: in the field of defence industries and technologies, we are talking about the material bases of sovereignty, in other words the concrete pillars of the autonomous capacity to decide and to act. Each and every measure with regard to research, development, production and procurement is a political decision in the strictest sense of the term. It is therefore in this quality that it must be apprehended and transferred from the intimate circle of specialists right onto the public place. Since political decisions deserve political debate.
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At the watershed of two epochs
Magyar-francia kapcsolatok 1945-1990 (G. Kecskés) 20 mars, 2006
Commentary on a document related to the visit in Budapest of Commission President Jacques Delors and French Minister of Foreign Affairs Roland Dumas, 16-17 November 1989.
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Mass hysteria and Realpolitik around Mohammed
interview ma.hu 09 févr, 2006
“Europe pays the price of her usual cowardice and, once again, the majority of the politicians only think of capitulating. However, on the long run, it is like adding fuel to the fire.” The more so as “the agitation of today is merely an episode in an infinitely broader power struggle.”
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Transatlantic satellite story 1 (Galileo vs GPS)
Népszabadság Online 10 janv, 2006
Galileo (the European satellite navigation system whose construction is now also pursued in space after the launching of the first test satellite) is one of the decisive strategic projects of the decade. In every, including military, sense of the term. It prefers, of course, remain low-profile in this regard. Even when others point out the facts, it tries to deny with vehemence.
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State of play in European defence
Az EU biztonság és védelempolitikai dokumentumai 3 19 déc, 2005
The current paper on the European Union's security and defence policy examines the issue of 1. Developments in year 2005; 2. Public opinion and democratic control; 3. Defence industry and technologies; 4. Civilian aspects of crisis management; 5. Cooperation with the United Nations.
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The prospects of a common European strategic culture
Az EU biztonság- és védelempolitikai dokumentumai 3 (ed. J. Takács - P. Tálas - H. Vincze) 01 déc, 2005
The present study begins by examining the concept of "strategic culture", before attempting to take stock of the numerous dividing lines between the EU’s Member States in this field. To conclude, it focuses on the forces which allow or prevent from overcoming these divergences. By underlining all along that the real question does not relate to the feasibility of a possible synthesis, but rather to its substance. In other words, the question is to know whether a common European security culture could ever have any meaningful strategic dimension.
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Core Europe idea put into context
intervention Réunion du Forum Carolus, Strasbourg 25 nov, 2005
Europe today is characterized by a strategic and identity-related vagueness: she is without geographical and political outlines. Her geographical borders are still imprecise towards the East and South, as well as towards the West. As for European sovereignty, it is in a sort of no man’s land: the Member States abandon entire sectors of their national sovereignty without there being anything, at a European level, resembling a political entity ready and able to defend Europeans’ capacity to decide and to act autonomously.
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Europe in multiple circles: variations on the theme of
Külügyi Szemle 2005/3-4 15 nov, 2005
The present analysis examines one of the crucial points of the debates on the European Union’s evolution, namely the issue of "differentiation". With respect to this integration approach, commonly known under the names of "multi-speed Europe", "hard core" or "variable geometry", the paper underlines the fact that in itself this is neither a positive, nor a negative category. Whether increasing differentiation will lead to the disintegration or the revitalization of the integration depends, in fine, on two things: in the service of which policy and applying which modalities these flexibility measures will be put in practice.
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European avant-garde as both a necessity and an opportunity
Les Débats du Forum Carolus 13 oct, 2005
"Integrated Europe where there would be no policy, would be dependent on an outsider who, in contrast, would have one.” (Charles de Gaulle, 1961). There is only one question worth asking in the current state of the European Union. It is to know whether this crisis is finally "the" crisis. The answer depends on the political will of the Member States’ leaders, those of France and Germany in the first place.
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Berlin-Paris-Washington: reflections on the eve of German elections
Articles, 17 sept, 2005
It is impressive to see that with each election the majority of comments are ready to fall and to fall again in the same trap. Taking rhetoric for granted and despizing geopolitical realities, they tell us – some of them with enthusiasm, others with apprehension – how foreign policy is bound to undergo a fundamental change. It is, however, far from being that simple.
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EU-NATO relations: between necessary cooperation, inherent competition and the inescapable change of paradigm
Az Észak-atlanti Szerződés Szervezete a változás korában 15 aout, 2005
EU-NATO relations are merely a symptom. They are the reflection of the power struggle between the two sides of the Atlantic on the one hand, and of intra-European schizophrenia on the other. At the heart of this complex arm-wrestling there is one single crucial issue at stake: European autonomy. As regards the choice allegedly to be made between EU-NATO co-operation or competition, this is a false dilemma. In the current balance of power situation, both are inevitable.
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Explosions in perspective
Népszabadság Online 08 juil, 2005
The day after the terrorist „incidents” in London, it is worth noting that what happened is not a surprise, not a failure, not a European awakening, and not the beginning of a new Londonian era. The main characteristic of yesterday’s series of attempts in the British capital is that it has not changed a single thing as regards to the terrorist threat and the requirements of the fight against it. Those political or journalistic rhetorics that claim the contrary are merely looking for pretext.
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British split over the Atlantic
Népszabadság Online 05 juil, 2005
UK’s accession would mark the beginning of a dilution process at the end of which “there would appear a colossal Atlantic Community under American dependence and leadership, which would soon swallow up the European Community”. The prophetic words of General de Gaulle, in 1963, have not ceased being confirmed ever since.
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The EU, the crisis, the solution and ourselves
Népszabadság Online 20 juin, 2005
The enlargement of the European Union in 2004 was a mistake. It was plainly obvious since old Member States appeared unable to seize the opportunity which arised with François Mitterrand’s European confederation project, and did not have the political will to start any other form of ambition-based political differentiation during the decade which followed.
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The Union’s suffering and the remedy
Népszabadság Online 04 juin, 2005
There is only one question worth asking in all this chaos surrounding the constitutional treaty. It is to know whether this crisis is finally "the" crisis. The answer depends on the political will of the Member States’ leaders, that of France and Germany in the first place. The suffering is the result of not merely the last, but of all past enlargements. The Heads of State and government of the Six, in 1969 in the Hague, only gave their assent for the opening of the accession negotiations "insofar as the candidate States accept the treaties and their political finalities".
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Europe’s French conscience
Népszabadság Online 27 mai, 2005
There is no doubt that France has always constituted the cornerstone of the whole European construction: in its capacity as the guardian of the temple: the one who watches the project being kept on its original political track and who reminds the others to bear in mind the pursuit of those strategic purposes.
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Survivors of Mars
ma.hu 09 mai, 2005
The theses on the (alleged) powerlessness of Europe and on the (supposedly) benevolent (self-proclaimed) omnipotence of the United States reveal a profound ignorance.
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Transatlantic aircraft story 2 (Airbus vs. Boeing)
Népszabadság Online 30 avril, 2005
„Why is the American government supporting and subsidizing US aircraft industry through defence contracts? Simply because the future of the US, and of Europe in our case, is not in perfume or popcorn. The future is in electronics, computers, aircraft, missiles and space.” – the remark was made by Jean Pierson, ex-president of Airbus Industrie, in 1987.
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Transatlantic aircraft story 1 (Joint Strike Fighter/F35)
Népszabadság Online 08 avril, 2005
The eventful history of the military aircraft Joint Strike Fighter (F35) is like an educational fable. It enables us to contemplate on the one hand the sometimes almost perverse mechanisms of US foreign and defence policy and, on the other, the process of voluntary abandonment of European positions and strengths. In short, it acts as an eminently instructive “digest” of the transatlantic relationship.
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Some Theoretical-Practical Aspects of European Security and Defence Policy
Az EU biztonság- és védelempolitikai dokumentumai 2 (ed. L. Póti - P. Tálas) 01 avril, 2005
The concept of strategic, political, operational and industrial-technological autonomy lies at the heart of the connection linking together the substantial-existential and practical-implementational aspects of ESDP.
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The UN conundrum
Népszabadság Online 24 mars, 2005
If the year 2005 is that of United Nations, it is not so much because of the festivities around its 60th birthday, but rather because of the report of a High-level Panel of personalities, deposited last December on the request of the Secretary-General, and entitled "A more secure world". Indeed, the fate which will be reserved to the content of this document of a hundred pages will send a strong message, be it positive or negative, regarding the future of the organization.
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American false mirror (propaganda, US and Europe)
Népszabadság Online 02 janv, 2005
It is not the United States which behaves in an unexplainable way, but we Europeans. Indeed, Washington's acts and deeds are completely foreseeable, in conformity with its position. This does not make them less dangerous neither for themselves, nor for others, and does not reduce the enormous gap between their pretended intentions and their genuine aspirations. But America’s behaviour is fundamentally logical.
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European-American space battles
Népszabadság Online 30 nov, 2004
It is not "in a galaxy far, far away", but nevertheless beyond the Earth's atmosphere that one of the most enthralling rounds of the transatlantic match takes place. Although we cannot speak about genuine competition. Whereas for the United States the stake is to ensure an absolute control over all space activities, Europe, for its part, can only aspire to try to avoid total dependence.
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The Constitutional Treaty’s novelties in the area of security and defence policy
Eszmélet n°64. November 2004 01 nov, 2004
The area of security and defence policy is the one registering the most noticeable positive shifts within the new EU Treaty (referred to as the constitution). These novelties - along with all finally adopted arrangements - are crucial regardless of the "constitution's" immediate fate: they demonstrate the delicate equilibrium between the minimum requirement for effective functioning and the maximum degree of political willingness at the level of the Twenty-Five.
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Turkish EU accession: much ado about nothing
Népszabadság Online 06 oct, 2004
The mixed report of the EU Commission on Turkey’s accession marked the end of a double deceit. The one which made Ankara believe in the mirage of fully-fledged membership (obviously already as a candidate Turkey does not have the same rights as others). And the other one intended for the European public opinion and pretending that successive enlargements do not basically alter the Union’s very nature. Because it is precisely what they do.
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Perspectives and limits of the European Union’s fight against terrorism
Európai Szemle, 2004/2 01 aout, 2004
By pure coincidence, it was in Madrid, in December 1995, that the EU summit took place, where on the matter of terrorism the heads of state and government of the Fifteen stated for the first time what they could not but repeat eight years later – following the terrorist attacks on 11 March 2004 in the Spanish capital.
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Hungary and the EU: maximum commitment needed
, 14 juin, 2004
It would be already a great help if our political elite spoke finally about the bottom line (i.e. on the rare occasions where they have the kindness to elaborate any sort of reflection on Europe). If one could hear other thing from their part than the purely financial considerations or the rather vague discourse on "the common values". Since the EU is above all about sovereignty (and its sharing), about legislation and about decision-making – in other words about “par excellence” policy. Although European integration is still at the ambiguous stage that Jacques Delors characterized as "non-identified political object", this object remains nevertheless essentially a political one. It is in this manner that it must be apprehended, that the advantages and disadvantages which result from it must be measured, and that one must commit for or against its deepening. For the full text in English, please contact the author.
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Visions and counter-visions, or on the fundamental contradictions of the transatlantic relation
Külügyi Szemle 2003/4 01 déc, 2003
European-American structural tensions – breeding for decades and becoming acute with the end of the bipolar era – were merely brought onto surface by the Iraq crisis. Beyond the official pseudo-vision and occasional visions represented by German hesitations, the two genuine, concurring visions about Europe, transatlantic relations and the international order are advocated respectively by the British and the French.
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The renaissance of Europe
International Congress of European Journalists 15 nov, 2003
International Congress of the Association of European Journalists, on The renaissance of Europe and the Media. Panel discussion and presentation on the European idea and sovereignty.
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Beyond Symbolism: the EU’s First Military Operation Seen in its Context
Die Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik 01 juil, 2003
A casual observer of Concordia – code-name for the European Union’s first-ever military operation, conducted in Macedonia – would be first impressed by the abundance of symbols in almost every aspect of the mission. Not only do the politicians’ declarations put the emphasis on the „symbolic European message” carried by the operation[1] or present it as a „significant step forward in the long process of European integration”[2], but also the EU seems determined to plant its blue flag all over the place in order to increase its visibility – a goal explicitly identified as one of the key objectives of the mission.[3]
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A Stronger Military Role for the EU in the Balkans?
Unraveling the European Security and Defense Policy Conundrum (ed. J. Krause - A. Wenger - L. Watanabe) 01 janv, 2003
The necessity for the European Union (EU) to play a more assertive role in the Balkans is on the agenda now more than ever. In fact, after the events of 11 September 2001, the withdrawal of the bulk of the US troops from the region and their replacement by European contingents is, for the first time, considered as a politically feasible (and militarily sensible) option. At the same time, the EU’s evolving defense policy has been declared “operational” at the Laeken summit in December 2001,[1] with all the related institutions in place and with the Western European Union’s (WEU) crisis management capabilities and functions transferred to the EU. The EU is therefore theoretically the actor that is most competent to play a military role (in addition to other, more traditional aspects of EU crisis management) in the neighboring Balkan region.
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The European Union’s response to the events of September 11
Válaszok a terrorizmusra (ed. P. Tálas) 11 sept, 2002
Specificities of the EU’s situation and reaction Responses by sphere of activity Justice and Home Affairs Diplomacy and common foreign, security and defence policy Humanitarian assistance Air traffic safety Economic and financial measures Civil protection Long-term tendencies Collective defence Institutional flexibility Inter-pillars fusion Widening and deepening Mediterranean dimension Sustainable globalisation
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NATO Partnership for Peace European Security ESDI-CESDP Study Group (ESSG) meeting
NATO PfP Study Group meeting, Bern, Switzerland 21 avril, 2002
The European Security ESDI-CESDP Study Group (ESSG) has held his second 2002 meeting in Bern, Switzerland on April 21-23, 2002, as scheduled, on the invitation of the Swiss Department of Foreign Affairs. The meeting focused on "The Impact of the "Global War On Terrorism" ("GWOT") on European Security"
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International Workshop on ESDP Democratic Accountability
Bradford University-Norwegian Institute of International Affairs 30 juin, 2001
30 June - 2 July 2001Venue: Department of Peace Studies, University of Bradford, UK
Organised jointly by the University of Bradford (UK) and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (Norway)
This was the first workshop of the EDSP Democracy Project. Organised jointly by the University of Bradford (UK) and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (Norway). It aimed to examine the theoretical and methodological underpinnings for the EDSP Project, and to examine issues and challenges relating to the 'accountability gap' in three thematic areas
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